Incretin mimetic drugs are set to become the most popular non-insulin antidiabetic medications during the next decade as the number of Australians with diabetes grows, according to the latest market analysis.
The research from Datamonitor predicted that incretin mimetics such as dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists would dominate the market, accounting for 43 per cent of total non-insulin sales by 2018, at the expense of thiazolidinediones such as Actos (pioglitazone) and Avandia (rosiglitazone).
The growth of incretin mimetics, however, would depend on the success of brands such as Byetta (exenatide) and Januvia (sitagliptin) in receiving greater PBS subsidies, Datamonitor senior healthcare analyst Lisette Oversteegen warned.
While sales of thiazolidinediones stagnated during the last two years, Ms Oversteegen said patent expiries of key brands from 2011 onwards would provide a lucrative market for generic companies.
"When Actos and Avandia go off patent, brand substitution is indeed a possibility if allowed by the physician," Ms Oversteegen told Pharmacy News.
"It is unclear how willing physicians will be to substitute a brand for diabetes, as some are quite loyal to brands. But I think that in Australia the lower price of generics will drive brand substitution and therefore uptake of the generic products."
Overall, the Datamonitor research revealed that sales of antidiabetic drugs had been growing by almost 20 per cent every year since 2004 and reached $233 million last year.
There were around one million diabetes patients in Australia, Datamonitor estimated, driven by rising obesity and an ageing population.
In contrast to predicted changes in non-insulin antidiabetics, Datamonitor predicted that the insulin market would continue to be governed by long- and fast-acting brands such as Lantus (insulin glargine) and NovoRapid (insulin aspart).